The bears of the past are back to haunt. The current financial crisis and the ‘re-generation’ of it – at least, the new focus on it by the media – has, from a historical perspective, got another 350 days to run or so.
To see the recoveries that were experienced in Oil crisis and tech crash and not the 1929 great depression, there are some key assumptions to be made:
1. That this is a traditional crisis and is recoverable in a traditional way – in that global leaders and bankers actually know what to do and know that it’s going to work. The previous ways for governments to get their nations out of crisis was to spend. The medicine for this recovery is austerity and deficit reduction.
2. That, nothing else incredibly bad happens in the next 350(ish) days to break the recovery (and we’re writing this knowing that the US is yet to deleverge, that the second round of the subprime foreclosures are to come and that China will have to slow down significantly within the next 12 – 18 months)
3. That someone, anyone, can bailout America if required and or, the populaces of the major developed/developing world economies don’t mind being taxed more for the future and lifestyles they want (David Cameron’s emergency budget is quite inspired by trying to reduce debt now, rather than be forced by the IMF)